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  Destinations: Predicting the Future from Glacier Field Station, Glacier NP
Can the Glacier Field Station really see into the future? The researchers and scientists at Glacier Field Station aim to predict impacts of future global environmental change by understanding how the 1.1-million-acre mountain wilderness of Glacier National Park responds to present climatic variability and other external stressors such as air pollution.For several decades the Glacier Field Station has been conducting ecosystem research in the Northern Rockies area known as the Northern Continental Divide Ecosystem. This area is ideal for large-scale research because a large portion of the area is protected for future generations. The field station and park provide a unique outdoor laboratory for research.
The primary objective of ecosystem research has been to understand how the vast Glacier National Park wilderness responds to present climatic variability and external stressors such as air pollution so that future global environmental change can be predicted. To accomplish this, it had to be established how major ecosystem components are influenced by current and past climatic patterns. Developing computer-based ecosystem models which can organize available information and, in computer code, represent existing knowledge of ecological relationships was instrumental in reaching an understanding of complex mountain system dynamics. To produce management-relevant information, and anticipate the future state of Glacier Park, ecosystem modeling also was used simulate ecosystem outputs for potential future conditions. Liberal use of new technologies in remote sensing and Geographic Information Systems were married to new modeling techniques to produce quantitative estimates, 3D maps, and computer animations of ecosystem dynamics. With the information gathered, for any part of the park on any given day, it is possible to get a prediction of specific measures of the ecosystem's condition.Another focus of the Glacier Field Station is the monitoring of bear populations with the assistance of the bear's DNA. Currently, there is no reliable information on the status of Greater Glacier National Park Area's grizzly bear or black bear populations. Recent advances in genetic technology allow identification of species, sex, and individuals from DNA extracted from bear hair and scats without handling bears. The researchers analyze DNA from bear signs collected along survey routes and from a grid of systematically positioned hair traps. The number of individuals and species identified from survey routes will yield minimum counts and a baseline index of population size and will be used to design a non-intrusive population trend monitoring scheme. Bears identified from hair trap collections will be used in a mark-recapture model to estimate the population density and will provide an independent calibration of the population index developed from survey routes. DNA profiles with information onthe degree of genetic variation, relatedness of individuals, and sex will be used to address bear conservation issues. The Glacier Field Station has also assisted in research regarding the decline of whitebark pine communities in the U.S. and Canada. In 1995, a three-year project was begun to document the current status of whitebark pine in national parks in the Rocky Mountains from Wyoming to Alberta and to determine the historical distribution of whitebark pine in Glacier National Park, Montana. During the 1995 and 1996 field seasons, detailed information on tree status and the effect of damaging agents in 316 whitebark pine stands were collected. Field work in 1997 focused on validating the maps created by this project of current and historical whitebark pine distribution in Glacier National Park and on report preparation. The USGS Glacier Field Station is an international research center located in Montana at the west entrance to Glacier National Park, the United States part of the Waterton-Glacier International Peace Park. This field station, along with several others in Montana, make up the Northern Rocky Mountain Ecosystem Section of the Midcontinent Ecosystem Science Center (MESC) which is part of the U.S. Department of Interior, USGS, Biological Resources Division. Research partners include Glacier National Park, regional management agencies, the scientific community including universities (Oregon State University and University of Montana), and the public. Related Articles
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